Cryptocurrency markets recovered late Tuesday, recouping losses from the U.S. Fourth of July celebrations. Bitcoin rose 5% to as high as $59,300 before retreating slightly. Bitcoin is currently trading at $59,000.
Market participants have been closely watching the potential impact of Mt. Gox's sale of Bitcoin and the ongoing transfer of funds from the German government to exchanges and market makers. Despite earlier concerns, liquidations across the market totaled $100 million, a much smaller amount than the $600 million liquidated last week when Bitcoin fell to its lowest point since February, near $54,000.
In recent days, U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have acquired $654 million, bringing their total asset value to $49.3 billion. On July 5 and July 8, trading volumes in U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.18 billion and $1.98 billion, respectively, the highest since June 25.
Since July 5, Bitcoin investors have poured more than $650 million into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past three trading days. This included $216.4 million in net inflows on July 9, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund leading with $121 million and $91 million, respectively.
According to Farside Investors, inflows on July 9 totaled 3,760 Bitcoins. Over the three days, inflows on July 8 were $294.8 million and on July 5 were $143.1 million, for a total of $654 million.
Despite these inflows, Bitcoin has struggled to break above the $60,000 mark since July 4. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $59,000, down nearly 15% over the past month. Analysts remain hopeful that ETFs can help drive Bitcoin prices higher, similar to the price surge that preceded Bitcoin’s all-time high in March.
Sina G, co-founder and COO of Bitcoin custody advisory firm 21st Capital, noted that the sharp price rally from $16,000 to $73,000 earlier this year was driven primarily by ETF inflows. He observed that ETF flows were strong until mid-March, after which they slowed and bankrupt outflows began to dominate, leading to a price drop to $56,000.
However, inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have not been enough to offset the recent selling spree by Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA). Since July 5, the BKA has reduced its Bitcoin holdings by more than $850 million, following the seizure of nearly 50,000 Bitcoins in January during an investigation into a movie piracy website.
Arkham Intelligence data shows that BKA wallets now hold 23,960 Bitcoins, worth about $1.4 billion, less than half of the initial seizure. The BKA began selling Bitcoin on June 19 and stepped up those efforts in early July, sending hundreds of millions of Bitcoins to centralized exchanges and market makers.
Despite initial concerns about Mt. Gox and selling pressure in Germany, experts consulted by Decrypt believe those concerns are overblown. On Monday, the German government transferred about $900 million worth of Bitcoin to Kraken and other cryptocurrency exchanges, and on Tuesday, it transferred another $362 million to Kraken and other cryptocurrency exchanges.
Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Merkle Tree Capital, noted that the worst of the sell-off in Germany appears to be over. According to blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, Germany has moved about two-thirds of its seized Bitcoin holdings, with about $1.4 billion remaining. While the transfer of funds to exchanges suggests there may be an intent to sell, there is no confirmation that a sale has occurred.
McMillin also mentioned that the defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX will distribute about $16 billion in cash to cryptocurrency investors around September or October. Previous sales have already contributed to this cash distribution, which is expected to be a significant bullish catalyst in the coming months.
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